Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 86367.735147 91147.384841 95927.787985 101064.398270 106424.262919 111848.784446 117750.379059
2025-11-16 78630.938807 85931.529729 93438.024717 101723.035063 110600.659887 119817.641169 130100.142372
2025-11-23 72606.684190 81574.156971 90997.630125 101618.107172 113233.649107 125530.533191 139511.917708
2025-11-30 68966.778753 79282.503768 90319.407557 102972.803786 117043.553280 132175.170861 149642.544373
2025-12-07 65749.534378 77125.675890 89490.470518 103878.865067 120110.399855 137802.444585 158491.576403
2025-12-14 62458.051979 74634.066638 88060.223806 103896.333021 121994.086772 141960.134110 165579.777697
2025-12-21 59748.224589 72621.743441 87005.565006 104181.464333 124042.167542 146193.086454 172670.275427
2025-12-28 58077.708189 71690.230469 87082.401244 105667.229287 127384.209397 151841.684267 181345.881883
2026-01-04 56360.163996 70598.640221 86881.697963 106748.715417 130194.138705 156838.699638 189257.436291
2026-01-11 54583.663853 69343.462108 86406.440754 107433.400087 132481.066546 161191.478609 196406.258649
2026-01-18 52692.129642 67862.989400 85586.125480 107637.437916 134142.612017 164773.822541 202634.238478
2026-01-25 50986.535875 66534.421714 84881.292275 107918.620259 135846.330470 168372.785553 208867.839609
2026-02-01 49206.278042 65065.105556 83968.347173 107922.413184 137209.207191 171581.863489 214682.749959
2026-02-08 48126.980902 64423.723700 84031.132118 109088.211734 139963.846505 176457.560377 222518.284275
2026-02-15 46534.570617 63078.501032 83173.723329 109075.460127 141245.294918 179540.046709 228192.924891
2026-02-22 45751.060142 62724.737813 83519.996154 110531.759369 144318.990315 184795.548351 236522.776425
2026-03-01 44786.169464 62099.947104 83493.817983 111496.293829 146768.658271 189289.426137 243942.560008
2026-03-08 43441.081906 60937.318288 82746.429070 111515.715100 148012.588879 192289.189246 249531.033981
2026-03-15 42294.991361 59996.024531 82246.564257 111818.058294 149588.209963 195686.777897 255614.111599
2026-03-22 41769.424786 59850.677642 82751.755898 113392.422905 152766.701487 201082.565376 264201.928955
2026-03-29 41087.834646 59472.657690 82935.371642 114538.235545 155395.475154 205799.962578 271969.588901
2026-04-05 40262.406103 58874.467743 82808.746206 115263.579329 157476.674706 209832.136120 278896.782984
2026-04-12 39264.734088 58013.095166 82309.613312 115479.724265 158886.969863 213012.900373 284761.160015